Were people imitating others or exercising rational choice in on-line searches for 'swine flu'?

TL;DR

This paper investigates whether online search behaviors for 'swine flu' are driven by imitation or rational choice, proposing a method to distinguish these behavioral modes based on adoption and abandonment patterns.

Contribution

It introduces a heuristic approach to differentiate between imitation-driven and attribute-based decision-making in online search trends.

Findings

Identified symmetric and asymmetric adoption patterns.

Linked patterns to imitation versus rational choice behaviors.

Provided a global analysis of 'swine flu' search trends.

Abstract

Two general patterns have been identified for the adoption and subsequent abandonment of ideas or products within a population. One is symmetric, so that concepts or products which are adopted rapidly then decline rapidly from their peak, and those which are slower to move to their peak decline more slowly. The other is asymmetric, where the decline from the peak is considerably slower than is the rise to the peak, and vice versa. We posit that these contrasting patterns arise from two fundamentally different modes of behaviour which are used by humans in making choices in different contexts. Namely, choice based on the imitation of the choices of others versus purposeful selection based upon the inherent attributes of the concept or product. We illustrate the proposition with the example of internet searches for the phrase 'swine flu' in a wide range of countries across the world. The methodology offers a general heuristic for distinguishing between these two general and contrasting modes of behavioural choice.