Forecasts for Dark Energy Measurements with Future HI Surveys

TL;DR

This paper forecasts the potential of future HI radio surveys combined with CMB data to improve dark energy measurements, highlighting the capabilities of the SKA telescope in constraining cosmological parameters.

Contribution

It introduces two independent methods for forecasting dark energy constraints using future HI surveys and CMB data, emphasizing the significance of the SKA telescope's capabilities.

Findings

A Phase-1 SKA could perform a 20,000 deg² survey up to z~0.8, competitive with optical surveys.

Full SKA could survey up to z~2, providing precise cosmological measurements.

Combining SKA and Planck data could reduce errors in dark energy parameters below 1%.

Abstract

We use two independent methods to forecast the dark energy measurements achievable by combining future galaxy redshift surveys based on the radio HI emission line with Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data from the {\sl Planck} satellite. In the first method we focus on the `standard ruler' provided by the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) length scale. In the second method we utilize additional information encoded in the galaxy power spectrum including galaxy bias from velocity-space distortions and the growth of cosmic structure. We find that a radio synthesis array with about 10 per cent of the collecting area of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), equipped with a wide ($10-100 ~ {\rm deg}^2$) field-of-view, would have the capacity to perform a $20{,}000 ~ {\rm deg}^2$ redshift survey to a maximum redshift $z_{\rm max} \sim 0.8$ and thereby produce dark energy measurements that are competitive with surveys likely to be undertaken by optical telescopes around 2015. There would then be powerful arguments for adding collecting area to such a `Phase-1' SKA because of the square-law scaling of survey speed with telescope sensitivity for HI surveys, compared to the linear scaling for optical redshift surveys. The full SKA telescope should, by performing a $20{,}000 ~ {\rm deg}^2$ HI redshift survey to $z_{\rm max} \sim 2$ around 2020, yield an accurate measurement of cosmological parameters independent of CMB datasets. Combining CMB ({\sl Planck}) and galaxy power spectrum (SKA) measurements will drive errors in the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w$ well below the 1 per cent level. The major systematic uncertainty in these forecasts is the lack of direct information about the mass function of high-redshift HI-emitting galaxies.