Ionospheric total electron content variations observed before earthquakes: Possible physical mechanism and modeling

TL;DR

This paper investigates ionospheric TEC disturbances before earthquakes, proposing a physical mechanism involving vertical plasma drift driven by seismic electric fields, supported by modeling that aligns with observed anomalies.

Contribution

It introduces a model explaining TEC anomalies as caused by seismic electric fields influencing ionospheric plasma, validated by numerical simulations matching observations.

Findings

TEC anomalies correlate with earthquake proximity

Model simulations reproduce observed TEC variations

Seismic electric fields likely cause ionospheric disturbances

Abstract

The GPS derived anomalous TEC disturbances before earthquakes were discovered in the last years using global and regional TEC maps, measurements over individual stations as well as measurements along individual GPS satellite passes. For strong mid-latitudinal earthquakes the seismo-ionospheric anomalies look like local TEC enhancements or decreases located in the vicinity of the forthcoming earthquake epicenter In case of strong low-latitudinal earthquakes there are effects related with the modification of the equatorial F2-region anomaly: deepening or filling of the ionospheric electron density trough over the magnetic equator. We consider that the most probable reason of the NmF2 and TEC disturbances observed before the earthquakes is the vertical drift of the F2-region ionospheric plasma under the influence of the zonal electric field of seismic origin. To check this hypothesis, the model calculations have been carried out with the use of the Upper Atmosphere Model. The electric potential distribution at the near-epicenter region boundary required for the electric field maintenance has been proposed. The upper atmosphere state, presumably foregone a strong earthquake, has been modeled. The results of the corresponding numerical model calculations have revealed a fine agreement with TEC anomalies observed before strong earthquakes at the middle and low latitudes both in spatial scales and in amplitude characteristics.