A Bayesian approach to the analysis of time symmetry in light curves: Reconsidering Scorpius X-1 occultations

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian method using a bilogistic profile and MCMC algorithms to analyze time symmetry in light curves, specifically applied to Scorpius X-1 to evaluate occultation hypotheses.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel parameterization and MCMC approach for analyzing time symmetry in light curves, with a new independence chain for event localization.

Findings

Evidence suggests the events are unlikely to be TNO occultations.

The method provides a physically relevant characterization of light curve events.

Application to Scorpius X-1 data supports previous conclusions.

Abstract

We present a new approach to the analysis of time symmetry in light curves, such as those in the x-ray at the center of the Scorpius X-1 occultation debate. Our method uses a new parameterization for such events (the bilogistic event profile) and provides a clear, physically relevant characterization of each event's key features. We also demonstrate a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to carry out this analysis, including a novel independence chain configuration for the estimation of each event's location in the light curve. These tools are applied to the Scorpius X-1 light curves presented in Chang et al. (2007), providing additional evidence based on the time series that the events detected thus far are most likely not occultations by TNOs.