Chance Estimations for Detecting Gravitational Waves with LIGO/Virgo Associated with Gamma Ray Bursts

TL;DR

This paper estimates the likelihood of detecting gravitational waves from short gamma-ray bursts with LIGO/Virgo by modeling their merger rates based on observed redshifts, providing probability assessments for current and future detector runs.

Contribution

It introduces a model linking SGRB redshift data to merger rates, enabling probability estimates for GW detection during LIGO/Virgo observations.

Findings

Estimated merger rates in the nearby universe.

Probability of GW detection during recent LIGO/Virgo runs.

Comparison of rate estimates with existing literature.

Abstract

Short Gamma Ray Bursts (SGRB) are believed to originate from the merger of two compact objects. If this scenario is correct, SGRB will be accompanied by the emission of strong gravitational waves, detectable by current or planned GW detectors, such as LIGO and Virgo. No detection of a gravitational wave has been made up to date. In this paper I will use a set of SGRB with observed redshifts to fit a model describing the cumulative number of SGRB as a function of redshift, to determine the rate of such merger events in the nearby universe. These estimations will be used to make probability statements about detecting a gravitational wave associated with a short gamma ray burst during the latest science run of LIGO/Virgo. Chance estimations for the enhanced and advanced detectors will also be made, and a comparison between the rates deduced from this work will be compared to the existing literature.