Is Beta Pic b the transiting planet of November 1981?

TL;DR

This paper investigates whether the directly imaged planet Beta Pic b could be the same object responsible for the 1981 photometric transit event, by analyzing its orbital parameters and historical observations.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis linking the 1981 photometric event to the orbit of Beta Pic b, estimating its orbital parameters and predicting future transits.

Findings

Estimated semi-major axis: 7.6-8.7 AU

Orbital period: 15.9-19.5 years

Predicted future transits and imaging opportunities

Abstract

In 1981, Beta Pictoris showed strong and rapid photometric variations that were attributed to the transit of a giant comet or a planet orbiting at several AUs (Lecavelier des Etangs et al. 1994, 1995, 1997; Lamers et al. 1997). Recently, a candidate planet has been identified by imagery in the circumstellar disk of Beta Pictoris (Lagrange et al. 2009). This planet, named Beta Pic b, is observed at a projected distance of 8AU from the central star. It is therefore a plausible candidate for the photometric event observed in 1981. The coincidence of the observed position of the planet in November 2003 and the calculated position assuming that the 1981 transit is due to a planet orbiting at 8 AU is intriguing. Assuming that the planet that is detected on the image is the same as the object transiting in November 1981, we estimate ranges of possible orbital distances and periods. In the favored scenario, the planet orbits at about 8 AU and was seen close to its quadrature position in the 2003 images. In this case, most of the uncertainties are related to error bars on the position in 2003. Uncertainties related to the stellar mass and orbital eccentricity are also discussed. We find a semi-major axis in the range [7.6-8.7] AU and an orbital period in the range [15.9-19.5] years. We give predictions for imaging observations at quadrature in the southwest branch of the disk in future years (2011-2015). We also estimate possible dates for the next transits and anti-transits.