Zeno at the Steering Wheel

TL;DR

This paper explores the paradoxical difference between the objective probability of future events and the subjective perception of risk experienced instantaneously, drawing parallels with Zeno's paradoxes.

Contribution

It offers reflections on the apparent incongruity between third-person probability assessments and first-person risk perception, connecting philosophical paradoxes with probabilistic understanding.

Findings

Highlights the discrepancy between objective and subjective probabilities.

Draws philosophical parallels with Zeno's paradoxes.

Stimulates discussion on perception versus statistical calculation.

Abstract

This paper collects some reflections about an apparent incongruity between the usual (third-person) understanding of the probability of an event calculated for an extended period of time in the future (e.g., the expected probability of a driver to meet with a car accident in the next $M$ years) and the subjective perception of the same probability/risk that the person involved in that event has, instant by instant during that period of time. Similarities with the classical Zeno's paradoxes come to mind.