Broken Arrows: Radiological hazards from nuclear warhead accidents (the Minot USAF base nuclear weapons incident)

TL;DR

This paper assesses the radiological hazards and potential health impacts of a hypothetical nuclear warhead accident at Minot Air Force Base, using simulations to estimate casualties, contamination, and costs in urban settings.

Contribution

It presents a detailed simulation-based analysis of radiological risks from a nuclear warhead accident in a metropolitan area, which is a novel application for this incident type.

Findings

Estimated cancer mortality from the accident.

Land contamination levels post-accident.

Health and decontamination costs.

Abstract

According to numerous press reports, in 2007 at Minot US Air Force Base six AGM-129 Advanced Cruise Missiles mistakenly armed with W80-1 thermonuclear warheads were loaded on a B-52H heavy bomber in place of six unarmed AGM-129 missiles that were awaiting transport to Barksdale US Air Force Base for disposal. The live nuclear missiles were not reported missing, and stood unsecured and unguarded while mounted to the aircraft for a period of 36 hours. The present work investigates the radiological hazards associated with a worst-case postulated accident that would disperse the nuclear material of the six warheads in large metropolitan cities. Using computer simulations approximate estimates are derived for the ensuing cancer mortality and land contamination after the accident. Health, decontamination and evacuation costs are also estimated in the framework of the linear risk model.