Tradition versus fashion in consumer choice

TL;DR

This paper extends the Bass diffusion model to account for long-term population changes in markets where consumer choices are influenced by social imitation, illustrated through hill-walking trends in Scotland.

Contribution

The paper introduces an extended Bass model that incorporates dynamic population changes, addressing a gap in modeling markets influenced by social behavior over time.

Findings

Extended Bass model effectively captures long-term social influence effects.

Application to hill-walking demonstrates model's practical relevance.

Model can be adapted to other markets with changing populations.

Abstract

Evidence is growing that in many markets consumers select not simply on the basis of the perceived attributes of products, but their preferences are modified by the behaviour of others. Economists have paid relatively little attention to such markets. The classic Bass diffusion model incorporates the imitation of others as a part of the behavioural rules used by consumers in making choice. We extend the Bass model to be able to apply it to long-term case studies where substantial changes over time in the population making choices at any given point have to be taken into account. We consider evidence from the activity of hill-walking. We use as a particular illustration the Munros, a list of Scottish hills over 3,000 feet in height which many British walkers aspire to complete. The extension to the Bass model can of course be used in other situations where such population changes are important.