Bayesian reasoning in cosmology

TL;DR

This paper explores the application of Bayesian reasoning in cosmology, discussing its philosophical foundations, epistemic limitations, and its usefulness in evaluating cosmological models and hypotheses.

Contribution

It provides an in-depth analysis of Bayesian epistemology in cosmology, addressing paradoxes and demonstrating its practical relevance to modern cosmological issues.

Findings

Bayesian inference faces epistemic limitations similar to Goodman's paradox.

The evolutionary nature of cosmology helps resolve confirmation paradoxes.

Bayesian methods are effective for testing quantum cosmological models and dark energy hypotheses.

Abstract

We discuss epistemological and methodological aspects of the Bayesian approach in astrophysics and cosmology. The introduction to the Bayesian framework is given for a further discussion concerning the Bayesian inference in physics. The interplay between the modern cosmology, Bayesian statistics, and philosophy of science is presented. We consider paradoxes of confirmation, like Goodman's paradox, appearing in the Bayesian theory of confirmation. As in Goodman's paradox the Bayesian inference is susceptible to some epistemic limitations in the logic of induction. However Goodman's paradox applied to cosmological hypotheses seems to be resolved due to the evolutionary character of cosmology and accumulation new empirical evidences. We argue that the Bayesian framework is useful in the context of falsificability of quantum cosmological models, as well as contemporary dark energy and dark matter problem.