Preseismic oscillating electric field "strange attractor" like precursor, of T=14 days, triggered by M1 tidal wave. Application on large (Ms > 6.0R) EQs in Greece (March 18th, 2006 - November 17th, 2008)

TL;DR

This study investigates a 14-day oscillating electric field precursor linked to large earthquakes in Greece, triggered by tidal forces, showing promising results for short-term earthquake prediction.

Contribution

It introduces a method to identify preseismic electric field oscillations related to tidal forces, extending previous 1-day analysis to 14-day cycles with validated results.

Findings

Successful prediction of large earthquakes using the 14-day electric field precursor.

Method shows high success rate, indicating potential for short-term earthquake prediction.

Precursor signals are consistent across different oscillating components of the electric field.

Abstract

The "strange attractor like" precursor, calculated from the Earth's oscillating electric field registered at PYR and HIO monitoring sites located in Greece, is studied in the domain of T = 14 days. It is assumed that the generating precursory signals focal mechanism is triggered by the corresponding M1 (moon declination) tidal wave. The obtained results from the analysis of eight (8) cases of large (Ms>6.0R) EQs that occurred from March 18th, 2006 to November 17th, 2008 suggest the validity of the method. Moreover, it is found that the specific methodology applied for T = 14 days behaves very closely to the same one when applied for T = 1 day even though there is a resolution decrease in the calculated predictive time window for the occurrence of the oncoming large EQ. It is speculated that this type of precursor, once it is present in one distinct oscillating component of the seismic precursory generated electric field, then, most probably, it is present in most of its other oscillating components. The latter suggests the investigation of the preseismic precursory electric field at its longer wavelengths i.e. components triggered by the Ssa (6 months, moon declination) oscillating components. The large value of the obtained success rate (predicted EQs / total no. of large EQs) suggests its use as a time prediction tool in the domain of the "short-term prediction".