The prospects of finding the first quasars in the universe

TL;DR

This paper assesses the potential of ALMA and JWST to detect the first quasars in the universe by modeling high-redshift black hole populations and predicting observable signals.

Contribution

It introduces a new model for high-redshift black hole populations and provides observational strategies for detecting early quasars with ALMA and JWST.

Findings

ALMA can detect 1-10 sources in a 1 arcmin^2 field.

JWST can detect 100-1000 sources in a 2.16 arcmin^2 field.

Both telescopes can probe quasars up to redshift 10 and beyond.

Abstract

We study the prospects of finding the first quasars in the universe with ALMA and JWST. For this purpose, we derive a model for the high-redshift black hole population based on observed relations between the black hole mass and the host galaxy. We re-address previous constraints from the X-ray background with particular focus on black hole luminosities below the Eddington limit as observed in many local AGN. For such luminosities, up to 20% of high-redshift black holes can be active quasars. We then discuss the observables of high-redshift black holes for ALMA and JWST by adopting NGC 1068 as a reference system. We calculate the expected flux of different fine-structure lines for a similar system at higher redshift, and provide further predictions for high-J CO lines. We discuss the expected fluxes from stellar light, the AGN continuum and the Lyman $\alpha$ line for JWST. Line fluxes observed with ALMA can be used to derive detailed properties of high-redshift sources. We suggest two observational strategies to find potential AGN at high redshift and estimate the expected number of sources, which is between 1-10 for ALMA with a field of view of $\sim(1')^2$ searching for line emission and 100-1000 for JWST with a field of view of $(2.16')^2$ searching for continuum radiation. We find that both telescopes can probe high-redshift quasars down to redshift 10 and beyond, and therefore truely detect the first quasars in the universe.