Complex Agent Networks explaining the HIV epidemic among homosexual men in Amsterdam

TL;DR

This paper introduces Complex Agent Networks (CANs), a novel modeling approach combining agent-based models and complex networks to simulate HIV spread among MSM in Amsterdam, accurately reflecting historical data.

Contribution

The paper presents a new CAN framework for detailed HIV epidemic modeling, integrating sexual relationship types and demonstrating its effectiveness with real-world data.

Findings

Simulation results align well with historical Amsterdam HIV data

CAN effectively captures dynamics of MSM sexual networks

Model distinguishes between steady and casual relationships

Abstract

Simulating the evolution of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic requires a detailed description of the population network, especially for small populations in which individuals can be represented in detail and accuracy. In this paper, we introduce the concept of a Complex Agent Network(CAN) to model the HIV epidemics by combining agent-based modelling and complex networks, in which agents represent individuals that have sexual interactions. The applicability of CANs is demonstrated by constructing and executing a detailed HIV epidemic model for men who have sex with men (MSM) in Amsterdam, including a distinction between steady and casual relationships. We focus on MSM contacts because they play an important role in HIV epidemics and have been tracked in Amsterdam for a long time. Our experiments show good correspondence between the historical data of the Amsterdam cohort and the simulation results.