Parameter degeneracies and (un)predictability of gravitational microlensing events

TL;DR

This paper discusses the challenges and degeneracies in modeling gravitational microlensing light curves, emphasizing the importance of parametrization and early data acquisition for accurate physical property inference and event prediction.

Contribution

It introduces insights into parameter degeneracies in microlensing and highlights the significance of parametrization and early observations for better modeling and prediction.

Findings

Degeneracies hinder full phase prediction of microlensing events.

Observable-based parametrizations improve modeling and flux prediction.

Early data acquisition enhances physical property determination.

Abstract

(abridged) Some difficulties in determining the physical properties that lead to observed anomalies in microlensing light curves, such as the mass and separation of extra-solar planets orbiting the lens star, or the relative source-lens parallax, are already anchored in factors that limit the amount of information available from ordinary events and in the adopted parametrization. Moreover, a real-time detection of deviations from an ordinary light curve while these are still in progress can only be done against a known model of the latter, and such is also required for properly prioritizing ongoing events for monitoring in order to maximize scientific returns. Despite the fact that ordinary microlensing light curves are described by an analytic function that only involves a handful of parameters, modelling these is far less trivial than one might be tempted to think. A well-known degeneracy for small impacts, and another one for the initial rise of an event, makes an interprediction of different phases impossible, while determining a complete set of model parameters requires the assessment of the fundamental characteristics of all these phases. While the wing of the light curve provides valuable information about the time-scale that absorbs the physical properties, the peak flux of the event can be meaningfully predicted only after about a third of the total magnification has been reached. Parametrizations based on observable features not only ease modelling by bringing the covariance matrix close to diagonal form, but also allow good predictions of the measured flux without the need to determine all parameters accurately. Campaigns intending to infer planet populations from observed microlensing events need to invest some time into acquiring data that allows to properly determine the magnification function.