Simple estimates on size of epidemics in generalized SIR-model for inhomogeneous populations

TL;DR

This paper extends the classical SIR epidemic model to account for inhomogeneous susceptibility within populations, providing new insights into epidemic dynamics and their qualitative and quantitative features.

Contribution

It introduces a generalized SIR model that incorporates population heterogeneity in susceptibility, advancing understanding of epidemic development in diverse populations.

Findings

Quantitative features of epidemic spread in inhomogeneous populations identified

Qualitative behaviors of epidemic processes analyzed

Model provides a framework for more realistic epidemic predictions

Abstract

A generalization of Kermack-McKendick model of epidemics to the case of inhomogeneous susceptibility of population is proposed. Some quantitative and qualitative features of epidemic process development in this situation are established.