Thermal emissions and climate change: Cooler options for future energy technology

TL;DR

This paper highlights that without adopting renewable energy sources or geoengineering, thermal emissions from human activity could cause indefinite increases in climate forcing, emphasizing the need for innovative energy technologies.

Contribution

It demonstrates the importance of considering thermal emissions in climate projections and proposes renewable energy options that utilize existing climate energy flows as solutions.

Findings

Thermal emissions can cause indefinite climate forcing growth if unchecked.

Renewable energy sources exploiting existing climate energy flows are effective alternatives.

Neglecting thermal emissions leads to underestimating future climate risks.

Abstract

Global warming arises from 'temperature forcing', a net imbalance between energy fluxes entering and leaving the climate system and arising within it. Humanity introduces temperature forcing through greenhouse gas emissions, agriculture, and thermal emissions from fuel burning. Up to now climate projections, neglecting thermal emissions, typically foresee maximum forcing around the year 2050, followed by a decline. In this paper we show that, if humanity's energy use grows at 1%/year, slower than in recent history, and if thermal emissions are not controlled through novel energy technology, temperature forcing will increase indefinitely unless combated by geoengineering. Alternatively, and more elegantly, humanity may use renewable sources such as wind, wave, tidal, ocean thermal, and solar energy that exploit energy flows already present in the climate system, or act as effective sinks for thermal energy.