Preseismic electric field "strange attractor" like precursor analysis applied on large (Ms > 5.5R) EQs, which occurred in Greece during December 1st, 2007 - April 30th, 2008

TL;DR

This study evaluates a 'strange attractor' electric field precursor as a short-term predictor for large earthquakes in Greece, demonstrating its potential to identify earthquake timing within a week of occurrence.

Contribution

The paper introduces and applies a novel electric field analysis method for short-term earthquake prediction, with detailed case studies from Greece during 2007-2008.

Findings

Precursor typically initiates about 9 days before EQ

Precursor duration averages around 7 days

Time from precursor end to EQ is about 2 days

Abstract

In order to investigate the capability of the preseismic electric field "strange attractor like" precursor as a time predictor of a large EQ within a short time window (short-term prediction), the specific methodology was applied on the Earth's electric field recorded during a rather long seismically active period (December 1st, 2007 - April 30th, 2008) of Greece. During this period of time a number (8) of large (Ms > 5.5R) earthquakes took place. The particular analysis is presented in detail for the following EQs: the Monemvasia EQ (January 6th 2008, Ms = 6.6R), the Methoni EQs (February 14th 2008 Ms = 6.7R, February 19th 2008 Ms = 5.6R, February 20th 2008 Ms = 6.5R, February 26th 2008 Ms = 5.7R), the Skyros EQ (March 19th 2008 Ms = 5.5R) and the Mid Southern Creta EQ (March 28th 2008 Ms = 5.6R). The obtained results from the analysis of the afore mentioned EQs, in conjunction to the ones obtained from an earlier presentation of the particular methodology (Thanassoulas et al. 2008a), suggest: an average time of initiation of the preseismic precursor of the order of (9) days before the EQ occurrence, a precursor average duration of the order of (7) days, while the elapsed time between the end of the precursor till the EQ occurrence time is, at average, only (2) days. These results suggest an objective and easy to apply method for the short-term EQ prediction, based on the registration of the Earth's electric field on ground surface.