The effects of aging of scientists on their publication and citation patterns

TL;DR

This study analyzes how scientists' publication and citation patterns evolve with age, revealing that productivity peaks around 40, impact per paper declines after 50, yet older scientists continue to produce influential work.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive analysis of scientists' productivity and impact across their entire career, highlighting sustained contributions after age 55.

Findings

Productivity rises sharply between ages 28-40.

Impact per paper decreases linearly after age 50.

Scientists over 55 still produce highly cited papers.

Abstract

The average age at which U.S. researchers get their first grant from NIH has increased from 34.3 in 1970, to 41.7 in 2004. These data raise the crucial question of the effects of aging on the scientific creativity and productivity of researchers. Those who worry about the aging of scientists usually believe that the younger they are the more creative and productive they will be. Using a large population of 13,680 university professors in Quebec, we show that, while scientific productivity rises sharply between 28 and 40, it increases at a slower pace between 41 and 50 and stabilizes afterward until retirement for the most active researchers. The average scientific impact per paper decreases linearly until 50-55 years old, but the average number of papers in highly cited journals and among highly cited papers rises continuously until retirement. Our results clearly show for the first time the natural history of the scientific productivity of scientists over their entire career and bring to light the fact that researchers over 55 still contribute significantly to the scientific community by producing high impact papers.