Are low-degree p mode frequencies predictable from one cycle to the next?

TL;DR

This study investigates whether low-degree p-mode frequencies in the Sun can be predicted from one solar cycle to the next using long-term BiSON data, revealing dependencies on data length and activity proxies.

Contribution

It demonstrates the potential and limitations of predicting solar p-mode frequencies across cycles based on historical data and activity proxies.

Findings

Prediction accuracy depends on the length of the time series.

Bias occurs when using short 108-day time series.

Prediction accuracy varies with the choice of activity proxy.

Abstract

The Birmingham Solar-Oscillations Network (BiSON) has been collecting data for over 30yrs and so observations span nearly three 11yr solar activity cycles. This allows us to address important questions concerning the solar cycle and its effect on solar oscillations, such as: how consistent is the acoustic behaviour from one cycle to the next? We have used the p-mode frequencies observed in BiSON data from one solar activity cycle (cycle 22) to predict the mode frequencies that were observed in the next activity cycle (cycle 23). Some bias in the predicted frequencies was observed when short 108d time series were used to make the predictions. We also found that the accuracy of the predictions was dependent on which activity proxy was used to make the predictions and on the length of the relevant time series.