A Numerical Testbed for Hypotheses of Extraterrestrial Life and Intelligence

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Monte Carlo simulation approach to better estimate the distribution of parameters related to extraterrestrial life and intelligence, accounting for uncertainties and enabling quantitative comparison of competing theories.

Contribution

It presents a novel Monte Carlo realisation method that incorporates distributions and stochasticity in SETI parameter estimation, improving upon traditional average-based models.

Findings

Provides a framework for quantifying uncertainties in SETI parameters

Enables comparison of different hypotheses about extraterrestrial life

Offers a more realistic estimation of the distribution of intelligent civilizations

Abstract

The search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) has been heavily influenced by solutions to the Drake Equation, which returns an integer value for the number of communicating civilisations resident in the Milky Way, and by the Fermi Paradox, glibly stated as: "If they are there, where are they?". Both rely on using average values of key parameters, such as the mean signal lifetime of a communicating civilisation. A more accurate answer must take into account the distribution of stellar, planetary and biological attributes in the galaxy, as well as the stochastic nature of evolution itself. This paper outlines a method of Monte Carlo realisation which does this, and hence allows an estimation of the distribution of key parameters in SETI, as well as allowing a quantification of their errors (and the level of ignorance therein). Furthermore, it provides a means for competing theories of life and intelligence to be compared quantitatively.