Competing Risks Analysis on Times to Commit Crimes

TL;DR

This paper develops a competing risks survival model to analyze recidivism times for different crime types, revealing correlations and probability patterns among reoffense risks.

Contribution

It introduces a trivariate Weibull model that relaxes independence assumptions, enabling the evaluation of correlations between different crime recidivism times.

Findings

Higher correlation between sex and violent crimes recidivism times.

Probability of arrest for other crimes exceeds that for violent and sex crimes.

Model provides insights into reoffense risk patterns.

Abstract

A trivariate Weibull survival model using competing risks concept is applied on studying recidivism of committing 3 types of crimes - sex, violent and others. The assumption of independence of time to commit each type of crimes is relaxed so that the association of the time to recidivism between any two types of crimes can be evaluated. We found that the correlation of time to recidivism between sex crimes and violent crimes are more correlated than other pairs. Probability of experiencing a charged arrest of other crimes is greater than a charged arrest of violent crimes followed by a charged arrest of sex crimes for an individual after release.