A housing-demographic multi-layered nonlinear model to test regulation strategies

TL;DR

This paper introduces a multi-layered nonlinear model to analyze housing market dynamics and evaluate regulation strategies, demonstrating that controlling construction rates stabilizes the market more effectively than interest rate adjustments.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel multi-layered nonlinear model for housing-demographic dynamics, providing insights into regulation effectiveness and market stability, with empirical validation using Madrid data.

Findings

Regulation of construction rate is more effective than interest rate changes.

Madrid's housing market is unstable but not critical.

Interest rate hikes mainly affect the poorest households.

Abstract

We propose a novel multi-layered nonlinear model that is able to capture and predict the housing-demographic dynamics of the real-state market by simulating the transitions of owners among price-based house layers. This model allows us to determine which parameters are most effective to smoothen the severity of a potential market crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued severe warnings about the current real-state bubble in the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands, Australia and Spain in the last years. Madrid (Spain), in particular, is an extreme case of this bubble. It is, therefore, an excellent test case to analyze housing dynamics in the context of the empirical data provided by the Spanish National Institute of Statistics and other sources of data. The model is able to predict the mean house occupancy, and shows that i) the house market conditions in Madrid are unstable but not critical; and ii) the regulation of the construction rate is more effective than interest rate changes. Our results indicate that to accommodate the construction rate to the total population of first-time buyers is the most effective way to maintain the system near equilibrium conditions. In addition, we show that to raise interest rates will heavily affect the poorest housing bands of the population while the middle class layers remain nearly unaffected.