Predictions for Supersymmetric Particle Masses in the CMSSM using Indirect Experimental and Cosmological Constraints

TL;DR

This paper estimates the likely parameter ranges of the CMSSM using indirect experimental and cosmological data, predicting the potential for detection at the LHC with specific luminosities and energies.

Contribution

It introduces a Markov-chain Monte Carlo approach to constrain CMSSM parameters based on current indirect data, guiding future collider searches.

Findings

95% confidence region within LHC reach at 14 TeV with 1/fb

68% confidence region within reach at 10 TeV with 50/pb

Potential for same-sign dilepton signals at 14 TeV with 1/fb

Abstract

In view of the imminent start of the LHC experimental programme, we use the available indirect experimental and cosmological information to estimate the likely range of parameters of the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (CMSSM), using a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique to sample the parameter space. The 95% confidence-level area in the (m_0, m_1/2) plane of the CMSSM lies largely within the region that could be explored with 1/fb of integrated luminosity at 14 TeV, and much of the 68% confidence-level area lies within the region that could be explored with 50/pb of integrated luminosity at 10 TeV. A same-sign dilepton signal could well be visible in most of the 68% confidence-level area with 1/fb of integrated luminosity at 14 TeV. We discuss the sensitivities of the preferred ranges to variations in the most relevant indirect experimental and cosmological constraints and also to deviations from the universality of the supersymmetry-breaking contributions to the masses of the Higgs bosons.