Notes on the UK Non-Native Organism Risk Assessment Scheme

TL;DR

This paper critiques the mathematical foundations of the UK Non-Native Organism Risk Assessment Scheme, highlighting analytical errors in its risk summarization procedures used for environmental impact assessments.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of the mathematical errors in the existing risk assessment scheme and discusses implications for its reliability.

Findings

Identification of specific analytical errors in the risk assessment method

Implications for the accuracy of risk evaluations in environmental assessments

Recommendations for improving the scheme's mathematical robustness

Abstract

In 2004, the UK Government's Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs commissioned research with the aim of developing a scheme for assessing the risks posed to species, habitats and ecosystems in the UK by non-native organisms. The outcome was the UK Non-Native Organism Risk Assessment Scheme. Unfortunately, the mathematical basis of the procedure for summarising risks deployed in the Risk Assessment Scheme, as outlined in Baker et al. (2008) and described in more detail in the Risk Assessment Scheme's User Manual, contains several analytical errors. These errors are outlined in the notes that follow.