Difficulties of Preserving the Leap Second

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the challenges in predicting leap seconds by extrapolating Earth's rotation data, using historical IERS data to forecast future leap second adjustments up to 2035.

Contribution

It introduces a method to extend leap second extrapolation based on Earth's rotation periodic terms and compares predictions with official IERS extrapolations.

Findings

Only one negative leap second is expected between 2006 and 2024.

Extrapolation aligns with IERS data up to 2012.

Forecasts indicate difficulties in precise leap second prediction.

Abstract

We examine the possibility to extend leap second extrapolation for a near future based on some periodic terms in the Earth's rotation changes. The IERS data, covering the interval from 1962.15 to 2006.95, are analyzed. The difference $\Delta T$ is extrapolated till to 2035 and compared with the IERS extrapolated values to the 2012. It can be seen that for the interval from 2006 to 2024 only 1 leap seconds (negative) will be operated.