A Monte Carlo Approach to Joe DiMaggio and Streaks in Baseball

TL;DR

This paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the probability of Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak, revealing it was plausible within baseball history but unlikely in 1941, with implications for understanding streaks in sports.

Contribution

It introduces a Monte Carlo modeling approach to assess the likelihood of historic sports streaks, challenging common perceptions about their rarity.

Findings

A 56-game streak is plausible within baseball history.

Such streaks are unlikely in any given year but occur roughly once per century.

DiMaggio's streak was historically plausible but unexpectedly timed.

Abstract

We examine Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak and look at its likelihood, using a number of simple models. And it turns out that, contrary to many people's expectations, an extreme streak, while unlikely in any given year, is not unlikely to have occurred about once within the history of baseball. Surprisingly, however, such a record should have occurred far earlier in baseball history: back in the late 1800's or early 1900's. But not in 1941, when it actually happened.