Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: the Error Diagrams

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the properties of error diagrams used in earthquake prediction, focusing on the non-unique definition of 'tau' in space-time alarms, and provides a theoretical framework for understanding their characteristics.

Contribution

It offers a theoretical analysis of the (n, tau) error diagram in earthquake prediction, addressing the non-uniqueness of 'tau' and extending the understanding of prediction quality measures.

Findings

The (n, tau) diagram's properties depend on the definition of 'tau'.

A theoretical framework for analyzing error diagrams is developed.

Insights into optimizing earthquake prediction strategies are provided.

Abstract

The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram 'n' vs. 'tau', where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is a characteristic of space- time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the quantity 'tau' is not defined uniquely, so that the properties of the (n,tau) diagram require a theoretical analysis, which is the main goal of the present study. This note is based on a recent paper by Molchan and Keilis-Borok in GJI, 173 (2008), 1012-1017.