The seismogenic area in the lithosphere considered as an "Open Physical System". Its implications on some seismological aspects. Part - III. Seismic Potential

TL;DR

This paper models the seismic potential of regions as an open physical system, using energy flow analysis to predict maximum earthquake magnitudes over Greece from 1970 to 2000, revealing a strong correlation with actual seismic activity.

Contribution

It introduces a dynamic, energy-based model for assessing seismic potential and maximum earthquake magnitude predictions over time in seismogenic regions.

Findings

Seismic potential maps correlate strongly with observed seismicity.

The model predicts maximum earthquake magnitudes with temporal variation.

Seismic energy charge status indicates future earthquake risk.

Abstract

The seismic potential of any regional seismogenic area is analyzed in terms of the "open physical system" inflow - outflow energy balance model (Thanassoulas, 2008, Part - I). Following the magnitude determination method presented by Thanassoulas, (2008, Part - II) any region of any arbitrary area extent is assumed as being a potential seismogenic region. Consequently, the capability for the generation of a maximum magnitude future EQ at each virtual seismogenic region is investigated all over Greece at certain times. The later results are used to compile maps of the seismic potential / maximum expected EQ magnitude for Greece at 5 year's intervals ranging from 1970 to 2000. The comparison of these seismic potential maps / maximum expected EQ magnitude to the corresponding seismicity (M>6R) for each corresponding 5 years period reveals their tight interrelation. Therefore, the calculated seismic potential / maximum expected EQ magnitude, due to its drastic change in time in any seismogenic region, is a dynamic in time parameter which indicates the seismic energy charge status of each seismogenic area.