The seismogenic area in the lithosphere considered as an "Open Physical System". Its implications on some seismological aspects. Part - II. Maximum expected magnitude determination

TL;DR

This paper models seismogenic areas as open physical systems to develop a method for estimating the maximum expected earthquake magnitude, validated with real-world data from Greece and the USA.

Contribution

It introduces a novel energy balance-based approach for predicting maximum earthquake magnitude, validated through empirical testing on global seismic data.

Findings

Method accurately estimates maximum earthquake magnitude

Validation shows high correlation with observed magnitudes

Applicable to different seismogenic regions

Abstract

The (any) seismogenic area in the lithosphere is considered as an open physical system. Following its energy balance analysis earlier presented (Part - I, Thanassoulas, 2008), the specific case when the seismogenic area is under normal (input energy equals released energy) seismogenic conditions is studied. In this case the cumulative seismic energy release is a linear time function. Starting from this linear function a method is postulated for the determination of the maximum expected magnitude of a future earthquake. The proposed method has been tested "a posteriori" on real EQs from the Greek territory, USA and data obtained from the seismological literature. The obtained results validate the methodology while an analysis is presented that justifies the obtained high degree of accuracy compared to the corresponding calculated EQ magnitudes with seismological methods.