The seismogenic area in the lithosphere considered as an "Open Physical System". Its implications on some seismological aspects. Part - I. Accelerated deformation

TL;DR

This paper models the seismogenic area as an open physical system, linking energy flow dynamics to seismic activity patterns like accelerated deformation and quiescence, aiding in earthquake prediction and regional seismic risk assessment.

Contribution

It introduces a novel physical model based on energy flow analysis that correlates seismic energy release with earthquake precursors and potential magnitude estimation.

Findings

Energy flow models match observed seismic behaviors.

Analytical derivatives predict large earthquake timing.

Method applied successfully to Greek seismic data.

Abstract

The seismogenic area in the lithosphere is considered as an open physical system. The mathematical analysis of its inflow - outflow energy balance reveals the presence of specific energy flow physical models. The later comply with what has been observed by seismologists as "accelerated deformation" and "seismic quiescence". These physical models are represented by low-order cumulative seismic energy release analytical polynomial functions in time. The time derivatives of these functions, analytically calculated, provide a more sharp indication for the time of occurrence of a future large EQ. Examples from the application of this approach on real large EQs from the Greek territory are presented. Moreover, this methodology can be used for the determination of: the maximum expected magnitude of a future large EQ of a specific seismically activated seismogenic area and the compilation of seismic potential regional maps. The later will be presented in details in articles to follow soon.