A robust correlation between growth rate and amplitude of solar cycles: consequences for prediction methods

TL;DR

This study finds a strong correlation between the early growth rate and the amplitude of solar cycles across multiple datasets, impacting prediction methods and suggesting caution in dynamo-based forecasts.

Contribution

It reveals a robust correlation between solar cycle growth rate and amplitude, explaining the effectiveness of precursor prediction methods and influencing dynamo model predictions.

Findings

Stronger solar cycles rise faster.

Correlation explains precursor prediction success.

Affects dynamo-based solar cycle predictions.

Abstract

We consider the statistical relationship between the growth rate of activity in the early phase of a solar cycle with its subsequent amplitude on the basis of four datasets of global activity indices (Wolf sunspot number, group sunspot number, sunspot area, and 10.7-cm radio flux). In all cases, a significant correlation is found: stronger cycles tend to rise faster. Owing to the overlapping of sunspot cycles, this correlation leads to an amplitude-dependent shift of the solar minimum epoch. We show that this effect explains the correlations underlying various so-called precursor methods for the prediction of solar cycle amplitudes and also affects the prediction tool of Dikpati et al. (2006) based upon a dynamo model. Inferences as to the nature of the solar dynamo mechanism resulting from predictive schemes which (directly or indirectly) use the timing of solar minima should therefore be treated with caution.