Observation time to first detection of double neutron star mergers by gravitational wave observatories

TL;DR

This paper estimates the waiting times for the first detection of double neutron star mergers by gravitational wave observatories, considering astrophysical uncertainties and observatory parameters.

Contribution

It introduces a probabilistic framework to predict detection times, accounting for galaxy distribution and merger rate fluctuations, providing practical detection time estimates.

Findings

95% chance of detection within 60 days with Advanced LIGO

1/20 chance of detection in 1 day with Advanced LIGO

Galaxy clusters have minimal impact on detection rates within 5-10 years

Abstract

We constrain the uncertainty in waiting times for detecting the first double-neutron-star (DNS) mergers by gravitational wave observatories. By accounting for the Poisson fluctuations in the rate density of DNS mergers and galaxy space density inhomogeneity in the local Universe, we define a detection `zone' as a region in a parameter space constrained by the double neutron star merger rate and two LIGO operations parameters: an observation horizon distance and science run duration. Assuming a mean rate of about 80 DNS mergers per Milky Way galaxy Myr^{-1}, we find a 1/20 chance of observing a merger by Enhanced LIGO in only 1 yr of observation. The minimum waiting time and temporal zone width for an Advanced LIGO sensitivity are much shorter and imply that there is a 95% probability of detecting a DNS merger in less than 60 days and a 1/20 chance of a first detection in about 1 day. At the 5% probability threshold for a first detection, we find that the effect of galaxy clusters on detection is smoothed out and may only influence detection rates after 5-10 years observation time.