Western Europe is warming much faster than expected

TL;DR

Western Europe's recent warming has exceeded model predictions, indicating that current climate models likely underestimate the impact of human-induced climate change in the region.

Contribution

This study provides the first direct comparison showing observed warming in Western Europe surpasses state-of-the-art climate model simulations.

Findings

Observed warming trend is much stronger than model predictions.

Model discrepancies are unlikely due to random climate variability.

Misrepresentation of ocean currents and land-atmosphere interactions may cause underestimation.

Abstract

The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to now could not be verified directly to observations on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too low. The observed temperature trend in western Europe over the last decades appears much stronger than simulated by state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due to random fluctuations, either in fast weather processes or in decadal climate fluctuations. In winter and spring, changes in atmospheric circulation are important; in spring and summer changes in soil moisture and cloud cover. A misrepresentation of the North Atlantic Current affects trends along the coast. Many of these processes continue to affect trends in projections for the 21st century. This implies that climate predictions for western Europe probably underestimate the effects of anthropogenic climate change.