The future of census coverage surveys

TL;DR

This paper reviews the limitations of current census coverage surveys, proposes focusing on overall coverage rather than spatial detail, and suggests integrating coverage measurement with the American Community Survey to improve accuracy and resource allocation.

Contribution

It introduces a practical approach to census coverage surveys by emphasizing overall coverage estimates over spatial specificity and explores integration with existing surveys.

Findings

Large sample sizes are unnecessary beyond 30,000 for coverage estimates.

Coverage surveys have limited utility in estimating geographical differences.

Integrating coverage measurement with the American Community Survey offers potential benefits.

Abstract

A quarter-century of statistical research has shown that census coverage surveys, valuable as they are in offering a report card on each decennial census, do not provide usable estimates of geographical differences in coverage. The determining reason is the large number of ``doubly missing'' people missing both from the census enumeration and from coverage survey estimates. Future coverage surveys should be designed to meet achievable goals, foregoing efforts at spatial specificity. One implication is a sample size no more than about $30,000$, setting free resources for controlling processing errors and investing in coverage improvement. Possible integration of coverage measurement with the American Community Survey would have many benefits and should be given careful consideration.