Stability of Thermohaline circulation with respect to fresh water release

TL;DR

This paper models the stability of the North Atlantic Thermohaline circulation against freshwater input, using a discrete map to analyze how melting ice could disrupt this crucial climate-regulating system.

Contribution

It introduces a two-dimensional discrete map model to study the impact of freshwater perturbations on Thermohaline circulation stability.

Findings

Freshwater input can destabilize the circulation by reducing sinking velocity.

The model identifies thresholds where circulation switches off.

Results highlight potential climate impacts of ice melt in Greenland.

Abstract

The relatively warm climate found in the North- Western Europe is due to the gulf stream that circulates warm saline water from southern latitudes to Europe. In North Atlantic ocean the stream gives out a large amount of heat, cools down and sinks to the bottom to complete the Thermohaline circulation. There is considerable debate on the stability of the stream to inputs of fresh water from the melting ice in Greenland and Arctic. The circulation, being switched off, will have massive impact on the climate of Europe. Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) has warned of this danger in its recent report. Our aim is to model the Thermohaline circulation at the point where it sinks in the North-Atlantic. We create a two dimensional discrete map modeling the salinity gradient and vertical velocity of the stream. We look for how a perturbation in the form of fresh water release can destabilise the circulation by pushing the velocity below a certain threshold.