Current Problems of Magnetic Storm Prediction and Possible Ways of Their Solving

TL;DR

This paper discusses the main challenges in predicting magnetic storms, highlights the need to explore less-studied solar wind features, and emphasizes investigating the origins of all storm intensities to improve forecast accuracy.

Contribution

It proposes exploring poorly understood solar wind features, such as density behavior, to enhance medium-term magnetic storm prediction methods.

Findings

Identified key issues reducing prediction efficiency

Suggested investigating solar wind density behavior

Provided examples of successful research approaches

Abstract

Main problems of magnetic storm prediction and causes of low efficiency of medium-term prognosis are discussed. It is supposed, that possible way of their solving is searching for poor-investigated features of solar wind (for instance, solar wind density behavior before storms). The necessity of investigation not only severe storms and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but origin of moderate and weak storms is shown. Examples of successful investigations in this direction are given.