Cycles, determinism and persistence in agent-based games and financial time-series

TL;DR

This paper analyzes agent-based market games using cycle decomposition to quantify determinism, compare dynamics, and develop predictors, with applications to real financial data showing positive returns.

Contribution

It introduces a cycle decomposition method to quantify determinism in market games and applies it to real data, providing new insights and predictive tools.

Findings

Cycle decomposition quantifies determinism in market games.

Games exhibit stochastically perturbed deterministic dynamics.

Cycle-based predictors yield positive returns on real market data.

Abstract

The Minority Game (MG), the Majority Game (MAJG) and the Dollar Game ($G) are important and closely-related versions of market-entry games designed to model different features of real-world financial markets. In a variant of these games, agents measure the performance of their available strategies over a fixed-length rolling window of prior time-steps. These are the so-called Time Horizon MG/MAJG/$G (THMG, THMAJG, TH$G). Their probabilistic dynamics may be completely characterized in Markov-chain formulation. Games of both the standard and TH variants generate time-series that may be understood as arising from a stochastically perturbed determinism because a coin toss is used to break ties. The average over the binomially-distributed coin-tosses yields the underlying determinism. In order to quantify the degree of this determinism and of higher-order perturbations, we decompose the sign of the time-series they generate (analogous to a market price time series) into a superposition of weighted Hamiltonian cycles on graphs (exactly in the TH variants and approximately in the standard versions). The cycle decomposition also provides a ``dissection'' of the internal dynamics of the games and a quantitative measure of the degree of determinism. We discuss how the outperformance of strategies relative to agents in the THMG (the ``illusion of control'') and the reverse in the THMAJG and TH$G (i.e., genuine control) may be understood on a cycle-by-cycle basis. The decomposition offers as well a new metric for comparing different game dynamics to real-world financial time-series and a method for generating predictors. We apply the cycle predictor a real-world market, with significantly positive returns for the latter.