Limited resources and evolutionary learning may help to understand the mistimed reproduction in birds caused by climate change

TL;DR

This paper introduces an agent-based model inspired by the Evolutionary Minority Game to explore how limited resources and evolutionary learning influence bird reproductive timing under climate change, revealing emergent social structures and adaptation patterns.

Contribution

It adapts the EMG framework to ecological resource competition, demonstrating how self-segregated strategies emerge and explaining varied bird responses to climate-induced mistiming.

Findings

Extreme learning strategies are favored over intermediate ones.

Self-segregated social structures can emerge from adaptation processes.

Habitat-specific constraints influence differential adaptation in bird populations.

Abstract

We present an agent-based model inspired by the Evolutionary Minority Game (EMG), albeit strongly adapted to the case of competition for limited resources in ecology. The agents in this game become able, after some time, to predict the a priori best option as a result of an evolution-driven learning process. We show that a self-segregated social structure can emerge from this process, i.e., extreme learning strategies are always favoured while intermediate learning strategies tend to die out. This result may contribute to understanding some levels of organization and cooperative behaviour in ecological and social systems. We use the ideas and results reported here to discuss an issue of current interest in ecology: the mistimings in egg laying observed for some species of bird as a consequence of their slower rate of adaptation to climate change in comparison with that shown by their prey. Our model supports the hypothesis that habitat-specific constraints could explain why different populations are adapting differently to this situation, in agreement with recent experiments.