Detection Probability of Terrestrial Radio Signals by a Hostile Super-civilization

TL;DR

This paper compares the detection probabilities of terrestrial radar astronomy signals and interstellar messages, revealing that extraterrestrial detection likelihood of our signals is vastly lower than our ability to detect signals from ETs.

Contribution

It provides a quantitative comparison showing the extremely low probability of ETs detecting our signals relative to our detection of their signals.

Findings

Detection probability of ETs detecting our signals is one million times smaller.

Radar astronomy signals are far more likely to be detected by ETs than our messages.

Our signals' detection probability is negligible compared to the likelihood of detecting ET signals.

Abstract

Comparison of the total number of the radar astronomy transmissions with respect to that used for sending messages to extra-terrestrial civilizations reveals that the probability of detection of the radio signals to extraterrestrials (ETs) is one million times smaller than that of the radar signals used to study planets and asteroids in the Solar System.