Figure of Merit for Dark Energy Constraints from Current Observational Data

TL;DR

This paper proposes an intuitive figure of merit for dark energy constraints based on the covariance matrix of minimally correlated parameters, demonstrating its application with current observational data and discussing implications for future experiments.

Contribution

It introduces a new, intuitive figure of merit for dark energy parameters based on the covariance matrix and compares different parameter choices using current observational data.

Findings

Correlation of (w_0,w_{0.5}) is smaller than (w_0,w_a).

Current data are consistent with a cosmological constant at 68% CL under certain assumptions.

Future experiments will significantly improve dark energy constraints and parameter space shrinking.

Abstract

Choosing the appropriate figure of merit (FoM) for dark energy (DE) constraints is key in comparing different DE experiments. Here we show that for a set of DE parameters {f_i}, it is most intuitive to define FoM = 1/\sqrt{Cov(f1,f2,f3,...)}, where Cov(f1,f2,f3,...) is the covariance matrix of {f_i}. The {f_i} should be minimally correlated. We demonstrate two useful choices of {f_i} using 182 SNe Ia (compiled by Riess et al. 2007), [R(z_*), l_a(z_*), \Omega_b h^2] from the five year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) observations, and SDSS measurement of the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale, assuming the HST prior of H_0=72+/-8 km/s Mpc^{-1} and without assuming spatial flatness. We find that the correlation of (w_0,w_{0.5}) [w_0=w_X(z=0), w_{0.5}=w_X(z=0.5), w_X(a) = 3w_{0.5}-2w_0+3(w_0-w_{0.5})a] is significantly smaller than that of (w_0,w_a) [w_X(a)=w_0+(1-a)w_a]. In order to obtain model-independent constraints on DE, we parametrize the DE density function X(z)=\rho_X(z)/\rho_X(0) as a free function with X_{0.5}, X_{1.0}, and X_{1.5} [values of X(z) at z=0.5, 1.0, and 1.5] as free parameters estimated from data. If one assumes a linear DE equation of state, current data are consistent with a cosmological constant at 68% C.L. If one assumes X(z) to be a free function parametrized by (X_{0.5}, X_{1.0}, X_{1.5}), current data deviate from a cosmological constant at z=1 at 68% C.L., but are consistent with a cosmological constant at 95% C.L.. Future DE experiments will allow us to dramatically increase the FoM of constraints on (w_0,w_{0.5}) and of (X_{0.5}, X_{1.0}, X_{1.5}). This will significantly shrink the DE parameter space to enable the discovery of DE evolution, or the conclusive evidence for a cosmological constant.