Does human activity widen the tropics?

TL;DR

This paper confirms the widening of the tropical belt using high-pressure centers but argues that solar activity, not human activity, is the primary driver, challenging previous claims linking it to climate change.

Contribution

It introduces the position of subtropical high-pressure centers as a new indicator for tropical belt width and questions the role of human activity in tropical widening.

Findings

Tropical belt has been expanding over recent decades.

Solar activity is a more probable cause than human activity.

Future widening depends on solar activity evolution.

Abstract

The progress article - Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate - by Seidel et al. (2008) published in the first issue of Nature Geosciences, summarizes the results of several methods to determine the width of the tropical zone. All they show evidence that the tropics have been expanding over the past few decades. We confirm this widening based on one more indicator - the position of the subtropical centers of high pressure. However, we question the implication of the authors that the tropics widen in response to human activity, and suggest as a more probable cause the increasing solar activity. Consequently, we question their conclusion that this widening may continue into the future in association with anthropogenic climate change, and suggest that whether the tropics will continue widening will depend on the future evolution of solar activity rather than on anthropogenic activity.