Reaching for equilibrium : an alternative view of the unbalanced carbon cycle

TL;DR

This paper presents a model linking ocean-atmosphere temperature-dependent equilibrium to atmospheric CO2 fluctuations, suggesting natural processes primarily drive CO2 levels rather than human emissions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel equilibrium-based model explaining CO2 fluctuations and historic levels without attributing the rise to human emissions.

Findings

Model accurately reconstructs historic CO2 levels since 1885.

Monthly CO2 fluctuations are correlated with sea surface temperature changes.

Human emissions influence fluxes but are not the primary cause of CO2 build-up.

Abstract

A model is proposed to explain the observed correlation between monthly fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures. The model relies on the oceans being in a temperature-dependent equilibrium with the atmosphere. When temperature changes, the system attempts to restore the equilibrium, with a time constant constrained by the dynamic fluxes between the two. The model is used to reconstruct both the historic evolution of CO2 concentrations since 1885, as well as the monthly fluctuations since 1959. The best fit is obtained with the southern hemisphere sea surface temperature data. In this new picture, human emissions play no role in the build-up of atmospheric CO2, but do contribute to the fluxes that restore the equilibrium.