A Comprehensive View of the 2006 December 13 CME: From the Sun to Interplanetary Space

TL;DR

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the December 13, 2006 CME, detailing its solar source, heliospheric effects, and successful prediction of shock arrival times using combined observational and modeling techniques, advancing space weather forecasting.

Contribution

It introduces a method combining MHD modeling and type II radio emissions to accurately predict CME-driven shock arrival times at various spacecraft locations.

Findings

The CME caused significant space weather effects including shocks, SEPs, and magnetic clouds.

The shock was observed at both Earth and Ulysses, separated by large latitudinal and longitudinal distances.

The combined modeling and observational approach accurately predicted shock arrival times.

Abstract

The biggest halo coronal mass ejection (CME) since the Halloween storm in 2003, which occurred on 2006 December 13, is studied in terms of its solar source and heliospheric consequences. The CME is accompanied by an X3.4 flare, EUV dimmings and coronal waves. It generated significant space weather effects such as an interplanetary shock, radio bursts, major solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and a magnetic cloud (MC) detected by a fleet of spacecraft including STEREO, ACE, Wind and Ulysses. Reconstruction of the MC with the Grad-Shafranov (GS) method yields an axis orientation oblique to the flare ribbons. Observations of the SEP intensities and anisotropies show that the particles can be trapped, deflected and reaccelerated by the large-scale transient structures. The CME-driven shock is observed at both the Earth and Ulysses when they are separated by 74$^{\circ}$ in latitude and 117$^{\circ}$ in longitude, the largest shock extent ever detected. The ejecta seems missed at Ulysses. The shock arrival time at Ulysses is well predicted by an MHD model which can propagate the 1 AU data outward. The CME/shock is tracked remarkably well from the Sun all the way to Ulysses by coronagraph images, type II frequency drift, in situ measurements and the MHD model. These results reveal a technique which combines MHD propagation of the solar wind and type II emissions to predict the shock arrival time at the Earth, a significant advance for space weather forecasting especially when in situ data are available from the Solar Orbiter and Sentinels.