Earthquake Prediction: Probabilistic Aspect

TL;DR

This paper provides a theoretical framework for earthquake prediction in space-time, analyzing optimal strategies and their relation to error measures, extending previous time prediction results and discussing forecasting issues.

Contribution

It introduces a generalized theoretical analysis of earthquake prediction strategies in space-time, expanding on prior time prediction models and exploring prediction efficiency.

Findings

Explicit structure of optimal prediction strategy

Relation to generalized error diagram

Discussion on forecasting versus prediction

Abstract

A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the theoretical results for time prediction. The possibility and simplicity of this extension is due to the choice of the class of goal functions. We also discuss issues in forecasting versus prediction, scaling laws versus predictability, and measure of prediction efficiency at the research stage.