Nonlinear Dynamics, Magnitude-Period Formula and Forecasts on Earthquake

TL;DR

This paper develops a nonlinear dynamic model linking fluid mechanics, chaos theory, and empirical relations to analyze earthquake mechanisms and forecast future seismic events, including specific predictions for California.

Contribution

It introduces a novel integrated nonlinear framework combining fluid dynamics, chaos theory, and empirical models for earthquake prediction.

Findings

Derived a magnitude-period formula for earthquakes.

Forecasted specific earthquakes in California for 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019.

Discussed earthquake migration patterns using the Lorenz model.

Abstract

Based on the geodynamics, an earthquake does not take place until the momentum-energy excess a faulting threshold value of rock due to the movement of the fluid layer under the rock layer and the transport and accumulation of the momentum. From the nonlinear equations of fluid mechanics, a simplified nonlinear solution of momentum corresponding the accumulation of the energy could be derived. Otherwise, a chaos equation could be obtained, in which chaos corresponds to the earthquake, which shows complexity on seismology, and impossibility of exact prediction of earthquakes. But, combining the Carlson-Langer model and the Gutenberg-Richter relation, the magnitude-period formula of the earthquake may be derived approximately, and some results can be calculated quantitatively. For example, we forecast a series of earthquakes of 2004, 2009 and 2014, especially in 2019 in California. Combining the Lorenz model, we discuss the earthquake migration to and fro. Moreover, many external causes for earthquake are merely the initial conditions of this nonlinear system.