A.-M. Guerry's Moral Statistics of France: Challenges for Multivariable Spatial Analysis

TL;DR

This paper revisits Guerry's 19th-century moral statistics of France, applying modern multivariate spatial analysis, graphics, and geovisualization techniques to enhance understanding of historical social data.

Contribution

It introduces modern multivariate spatial analysis methods to analyze Guerry's historical data, addressing his original challenge with contemporary tools.

Findings

Enhanced visualization of historical social data

Identification of spatial patterns in moral statistics

Demonstration of modern methods' value in historical analysis

Abstract

Andr\'{e}-Michel Guerry's (1833) Essai sur la Statistique Morale de la France was one of the foundation studies of modern social science. Guerry assembled data on crimes, suicides, literacy and other ``moral statistics,'' and used tables and maps to analyze a variety of social issues in perhaps the first comprehensive study relating such variables. Indeed, the Essai may be considered the book that launched modern empirical social science, for the questions raised and the methods Guerry developed to try to answer them. Guerry's data consist of a large number of variables recorded for each of the d\'{e}partments of France in the 1820--1830s and therefore involve both multivariate and geographical aspects. In addition to historical interest, these data provide the opportunity to ask how modern methods of statistics, graphics, thematic cartography and geovisualization can shed further light on the questions he raised. We present a variety of methods attempting to address Guerry's challenge for multivariate spatial statistics.