Space Weather Application Using Projected Velocity Asymmetry of Halo CMEs

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new technique to estimate the true space speed and source location of halo CMEs using projected velocity asymmetry, improving predictions of their geo-effectiveness.

Contribution

A novel method to determine the true velocity and source location of HCMEs from projected speeds, enhancing space weather prediction accuracy.

Findings

Improved speed estimates correlate better with CME travel times.

Enhanced predictions of geomagnetic storm magnitudes.

Technique applied successfully to 2001-2002 data.

Abstract

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) originating from regions close to the center of the Sun are likely to be responsible for severe geomagnetic storms. It is important to predict geo-effectiveness of HCMEs using observations when they are still near the Sun. Unfortunately, coronagraphic observations do not provide true speeds of CMEs due to the projection effects. In the present paper, we present a new technique allowing estimate the space speed and approximate source location using projected speeds measured at different position angles for a given HCME (velocity asymmetry). We apply this technique to HCMEs observed during 2001-2002 and find that the improved speeds are better correlated with the travel times of HCMEs to Earth and with the magnitudes ensuing geomagnetic storms.