The Production Rate and Employment of Ph.D. Astronomers

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the supply and demand dynamics of Ph.D. astronomers from 1970 to 2006, highlighting correlations with funding and assessing job market sustainability for new graduates.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of Ph.D. production, funding impacts, and employment trends in astronomy, offering insights into the job market's sustainability.

Findings

Ph.D. production correlates with federal funding levels.

Current job advertisements per new Ph.D. are approximately 2.5.

Average astronomer may hold up to 3 jobs before securing a steady position.

Abstract

In an effort to encourage self-regulation of the astronomy job market, I examine the supply of, and demand for, astronomers over time. On the supply side, I document the production rate of Ph.D. astronomers from 1970 to 2006 using the UMI Dissertation Abstracts database, along with data from other independent sources. I compare the long-term trends in Ph.D. production with federal astronomy research funding over the same time period, and I demonstrate that additional funding is correlated with higher subsequent Ph.D. production. On the demand side, I monitor the changing patterns of employment using statistics about the number and types of jobs advertised in the AAS Job Register from 1984 to 2006. Finally, I assess the sustainability of the job market by normalizing this demand by the annual Ph.D. production. The most recent data suggest that there are now annual advertisements for about one postdoctoral job, half a faculty job, and half a research/support position for every new domestic Ph.D. recipient in astronomy and astrophysics. The average new astronomer might expect to hold up to 3 jobs before finding a steady position.