The Impact of Heterogeneous Trading Rules on the Limit Order Book and Order Flows

TL;DR

This paper models an order-driven market with heterogeneous traders using utility-based order submissions, revealing that chartist strategies mainly cause fat tails and clustering in price data, and large gaps in the order book lead to big price changes.

Contribution

It introduces a novel market model where agents' order decisions are based on utility maximization, extending previous models with more realistic trading behavior.

Findings

Chartist strategies cause fat tails and clustering in prices.

Large gaps in the order book lead to significant price jumps.

Heterogeneous agent behaviors influence market statistical properties.

Abstract

In this paper we develop a model of an order-driven market where traders set bids and asks and post market or limit orders according to exogenously fixed rules. Agents are assumed to have three components to the expectation of future asset returns, namely-fundamentalist, chartist and noise trader. Furthermore agents differ in the characteristics describing these components, such as time horizon, risk aversion and the weights given to the various components. The model developed here extends a great deal of earlier literature in that the order submissions of agents are determined by utility maximisation, rather than the mechanical unit order size that is commonly assumed. In this way the order flow is better related to the ongoing evolution of the market. For the given market structure we analyze the impact of the three components of the trading strategies on the statistical properties of prices and order flows and observe that it is the chartist strategy that is mainly responsible of the fat tails and clustering in the artificial price data generated by the model. The paper provides further evidence that large price changes are likely to be generated by the presence of large gaps in the book.