Prediction and explanation in the multiverse

TL;DR

The paper proposes a precise way to define the reference class for probability predictions in the multiverse, suggesting that observers with identical information content form the ideal class, and discusses practical strategies for class selection.

Contribution

It introduces an unambiguous definition of the ideal reference class for multiverse predictions based on observers' information content and explores practical implications.

Findings

The ideal reference class is all observers with identical information.

Wider classes can be used by tracing over uncorrelated information.

Optimal prediction involves assuming typicality within the chosen reference class.

Abstract

Probabilities in the multiverse can be calculated by assuming that we are typical representatives in a given reference class. But is this class well defined? What should be included in the ensemble in which we are supposed to be typical? There is a widespread belief that this question is inherently vague, and that there are various possible choices for the types of reference objects which should be counted in. Here we argue that the ``ideal'' reference class (for the purpose of making predictions) can be defined unambiguously in a rather precise way, as the set of all observers with identical information content. When the observers in a given class perform an experiment, the class branches into subclasses who learn different information from the outcome of that experiment. The probabilities for the different outcomes are defined as the relative numbers of observers in each subclass. For practical purposes, wider reference classes can be used, where we trace over all information which is uncorrelated to the outcome of the experiment, or whose correlation with it is beyond our current understanding. We argue that, once we have gathered all practically available evidence, the optimal strategy for making predictions is to consider ourselves typical in any reference class we belong to, unless we have evidence to the contrary. In the latter case, the class must be correspondingly narrowed.